With the world in the spotlight, the dust has settled on the US presidential election, and Donald Trump has once again won the 2024 presidential election. This result seems to be an expected victory for some, but a bitter pill to swallow for others. Regardless of the public's acceptance, people's thoughts quickly turned to a more pressing question: What ripples will Trump's re-election have on specific industries, national economies, and international relations?
Trump's political creed of "America First" may leave a deep mark on the economy, trade and other fields at home and abroad. In particular, for the tobacco industry, especially the e-cigarette industry, what kind of changes will Trump's re-election bring? To analyze this issue, we must look back at Trump's attitude towards the e-cigarette industry and its policy trends during his first presidency.
Trump's first term lasted from January 2017 to January 2021. During this period, the e-cigarette brand JUUL rose rapidly through its strong marketing strategy, flavored e-cigarette products became popular, and the phenomenon of e-cigarette use by teenagers surged. Faced with the increasingly serious problem of e-cigarette and youth addiction, Trump gave a speech on September 11, 2019, announcing a plan to completely ban flavored e-cigarettes. The motivation behind this was the prevalence of young people smoking fruit-flavored e-cigarettes and lung diseases caused by e-cigarettes. According to the New York Times, more than 50 people had died from e-cigarette-related diseases and more than 2,500 people were sick.
However, the policy direction changed just two days later. On September 13, 2019, Trump tweeted his support for e-cigarettes as a substitute for traditional cigarettes, but emphasized the importance of safety and called for the removal of inferior e-cigarette products from the market to protect young people from harm. This statement marked a softening of Trump's position on the ban on flavored e-cigarettes.
On November 9, 2019, Trump mentioned in an interview outside the White House that e-cigarettes have become an important industry, and the government is weighing banning flavors, raising the purchase age, and considering the situation of industry practitioners. He revealed that the legal age for purchasing e-cigarette products may be raised from 18 to 21. Subsequently, on November 11, Trump announced on Twitter that he would meet with representatives of the e-cigarette industry to seek solutions to the industry's difficulties, with children's health and safety being the focus of the discussion. These statements indicate that the US e-cigarette ban policy may tend to be relaxed.
From Trump's repeated attitude towards e-cigarettes during his first term, it can be seen that the Trump administration is not intending to destroy the entire industry, but is beginning to consider its regulatory development from the perspective of the industry as a whole. In addition, a complete ban on flavored e-cigarettes may damage Trump's voter base. Therefore, under strong opposition from industry stakeholders, small business owners, and adult users who use e-cigarettes as a tool to quit smoking, the Trump administration scaled back the proposed ban.
However, the "FDA Finalizes Enforcement Policy for Unauthorized Child-Flavored E-Cigarettes (Including Fruit and Mint Flavors)" issued in January 2020 proposed a crackdown on fruit-flavored and mint-flavored closed-cell e-cigarettes, but not menthol and tobacco flavors. This basically laid the foundation for the basic policy of the United States on flavored e-cigarette products from 2020 to date. Commentators from the New York Times believe that Trump's several changes in attitude towards e-cigarettes reflect his position of balancing public health and economic impact.
On September 20 of this year, Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social: "I saved disposable e-cigarettes in 2019, which greatly helped people quit smoking. I raised the age of e-cigarette use to 21 to keep children out of touch with e-cigarettes. However, Harris and Biden want to ban everything and shut down small businesses across the United States. I will save e-cigarettes again!" Will things really be as he said? But don't forget that it was during Trump's first presidency that the closed flavor cartridge system was banned. At present, Trump won the 2024 US presidential election. After returning to the White House next year, he may continue the previous balance between public health and economic impact on e-cigarettes.
The famous e-cigarette media "2firsts" had a discussion with an observer who has been paying close attention to the US e-cigarette market this year. The observer believes that the core contradiction of e-cigarette regulation in the future is no longer the FDA's view on flavors, but the law enforcement issues of the US Department of Justice (DOJ), the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The observer also believes that Trump attached great importance to the work in the fields of trade circulation and combating smuggling in his previous term, which may lead to a more closed US market.
Trump's economic policy advocates "America First" as the core, advocating tax cuts, tariff increases and monetary policy adjustments to promote economic growth and manufacturing revival. Trump's return may continue to promote the policy of imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, which will put additional pressure on Chinese tobacco exports to the United States. In addition, Trump's running mate James David Vance has always emphasized the importance of public health and supports strengthening law enforcement to solve social problems, including illegal drugs and drug smuggling. Therefore, in the face of the e-cigarette problem, Vance may also support strict supervision and law enforcement.
Of course, the current development of the e-cigarette atomizer market has changed a lot compared to Trump’s first term as president. Whether Trump will continue his previous positions and policies after returning to the White House, or whether there will be new changes, remains to be seen and waited.